Happy Anniversary to the introduction of AI to the forefront of the general public’s awareness a year ago today. That is the release of ChatGPT 3.5 by OpenAI last November 30, 2022. I thought I’d write a short blog to commemorate this anniversary.
It’s been quite a year for this old software developer. I’ve seen some big changes during the 45 years I’ve been programming, but certainly nothing like this past year.
Some friends and colleagues say to me that they don’t believe the AI over-hype. I agree – but only to the point of what is being claimed in the context of the immediate reality – which shifts day by day. And there have been indications that the hype has cooled down from a violent boil to merely a rolling boil over the past few months.
But it took at least five years for the Internet to go from AOL and Netscape bursting onto the consciousness of the general public in 1995 to the abrupt ending of the dot-com bubble in April 2000. It then took at least another decade for the Internet to fill the hype of those dot-com days.
AI even sped up its own Gartner Hype Cycle. I think it went from “Technology Trigger” to “Peak of Inflated Expectations” to “Trough of Disillusionment” a magnitude faster than the Internet. In fact, I even think we might be in the very early stages of the “Slope of Enlightenment” (appropriately enough for Bodhi Day next week) where we’re exploring how to safely fit all this in.
On the left is pretty much a normal Gartner Hype Cycle (I recreated “by hand” in PowerPoint) which takes a few years to go through. On the right is how I feel AI’s hype has been and my guess of where it’s going. It’s highly accelerated. The hype skyrocketed, didn’t fall nearly as much as usual, and probably won’t end up as what we can call a “plateau”.
The vertical pink line on the right-side drawing is where we I think we are today.
I don’t know. It’s just my view and the guess I’d make if I had to bet. No one knows what will happen, especially when even the slowest times of AI growth this past year is faster than for anything else in my lifetime. And as cliche as it sounds, anyone who claims to know is full of crap.
It’s not that I’m a big cheerleader of AI. In all honesty, I think I’d rather this didn’t happen. But it is the biggest kick in the ass for honing our Zen skills. It is here – “Is that so?” I think trying to suppress it will create more dukkha than good. As I’ve written, AI or no AI, we humans are still sentient and sapient creatures.
For much of the past few months, I’ve been writing a book on AI. How quickly it became only six short weeks until the day I promised deliver it to the publisher! It’s not a Zen book my any means, but it’s interesting how a Zen/Buddhist angle can cast a clearer perspective on how AI integrates into traditional enterprise analytics.
I asked ChatGPT to create an illustration commemorating the first anniversary of its release to the general public for my blog. Its rendering skill has come a long way in not just the last year (through DALL-E), but within the last few weeks!
On the subject of the upcoming Bodhi Day (Friday, December 8, 2023), I will perform my Bodhi Day services at 5am Mountain Time on Bodhi Day. If you would like to join me in spirit.
In fact, I’m performing a service each morning at 5am MT from December 1 through December 8. I call the seven days before Bodhi Day, the “Bodhi Season”. During the time, Mrs. Hanamoku and I are nearly vegan, don’t partake in any “Christmas Cheer” (alcoholic beverages), no sugar, disconnect from all news, social media, etc., and even move work down a couple of pegs.
It’s not as though we’re loud, gluttonous, hard-partying, lazy, alcoholics the rest of the year, but we turn the dial down from 1 or 2 (max of 10) to near zero during the Bodhi Season. It’s how we prevent creeping up from 2 or 3 to 3 or 4 and on over the years.
I’m also much more cognizant of practicing the Three Zen Stories. Sometimes, the Bodhi Season is rather rough – as it was for the days Siddhartha Gautama sat under the Bodhi Tree before his enlightenment. I say, “It wasn’t an om-humming time.” As Clark Griswold said when Audrey’s eyes froze shut, “It’s all just part of the experience.”
Faith and Patience,
Reverend Dukkha Hanamoku
Bodhi Day 